The monsoon may have shown its presence over some parts of the country after a long dry spell in June, but a strong revival is expected only in the second week of July. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday that the delay in the strong revival of the monsoon is due to the formation of two sets of tropical storms over northwest and northeast Pacific. The tropical storm Neoguri over northwest Pacific is dragging a substantial amount of moisture from the east Indian Ocean towards it, which is obstructing the strong revival of the monsoon. The continuation of an intra-seasonal oscillation called MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation), which is now active over east Pacific, is not helping the matter. Experts said that the El Nino-monsoon relationship is not one-sided. A good monsoon, particularly during July and August, can further slow down the El Nino process. Similarly, a weak monsoon performance during these two months can strengthen El Nino. This year, the monsoon has been weak so far, and the inertia tends to keep it that way, unless some additional weather forces such as low pressure systems or depressions over the Bay of Bengal strengthen it.

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