Forests may stay green longer due to global climate warming, but it doesn’t mean those same forests will actually grow more. In fact, new research in two papers published by scientists at Indiana University finds that even though trees may keep their leaves on longer during warm years, how much they grow depends on how much rain they receive.

And with drier conditions predicted to become more common across much of the Midwest, the degree to which forests can store carbon and slow climate change will be reduced.

When taken together, the two papers published today in Global Change Biology argue that continental-scale satellite data that measures canopy greenness is not an accurate tool for estimating forest photosynthesis and, in turn, tree growth.

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