Longer dry spells and wetter wet spells could spell doom for the Indian agriculture, they warn Tough times are ahead for the Indian agriculture which is highly dependent on the summer monsoon. According to a study by scientists from Stanford University in the United States, there has been a consistent drop in the average seasonal rainfall India receives during the summer monsoon months of July-August. The study also warns of extreme weather patterns in future. The scientists analysed temperature and precipitation data from 1951 to 2011 and found a significant decreasing trend in the mean rainfall during the summer monsoon months. In contrast, there has been an increase in the daily rainfall variability during July-August by a 5 per cent level. Changes in atmospheric conditions have led to such higher frequency of dry spells and increasing intensity of wet spells, notes the study, which defines wet and dry spells as three or more consecutive days of extremely high or low rainfall. Such extreme weather events are increasing the risk of drought and flood in central India. Stronger convective activity over southern and eastern India leads to increased intensity of wet spells. Similarly, the decreased intensity of dry spells occurs due to reduced extent of horizontal cold air transfer (which occurs after reduction in upper-level cyclonic anomaly).

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